KCP in Orlando: The Compounding Effect of Inept Shooting
The Magic are flirting with the worst 3PT shooting teams of the modern era, and the KCP addition has been a far cry from the panacea the Magic had bargained for.
Despite converting 42.4% of their threes over the last two games, Orlando remains dead last in the NBA at 31.1% from deep (2.5% behind the 29th ranked Wizards). A mark that not only bogs down their offense on a per-possession basis, but puts them in dismal company among the dregs of recent history.
The Magic boast the worst 3PT% since 2012-13. Only six squads have shot worse from distance since the turn of the century, the most recent being the 7-win Charlotte Bobcats (29.5%) and a Wolves conglomerate sans Kevin Love for the majority of the 2012-13 season (30.5%).
Team woes aside, Orlando’s collective shooting ineptitude has brought the curious case of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope back to the forefront. Was the 3 Year/$66 million deal an egregious overpay? Did the Nuggets dodge a bullet? Foreseeably, the notions are circling. The former may hold weight while the latter is utterly absurd.
Contextualizing KCP's Shooting Downturn
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is individually shooting 31.9% from range, comfortably his worst mark since 2016. While far from an antidote for a soul-searching Magic offense, a complementary set shooter is inherently dependent on his team context, not the other way around. As such, any expectation for a player of KCP’s ilk to single-handedly bolster the Magic’s proficiency from behind the line is, and always was, unfounded.
Throughout the 2023-24 season, 55% of KCP's 3PT attempts were wide open - categorized as the closest defender being more than 6 feet away when the shot goes up (per Second Spectrum). That number is down to 44% in Orlando. Admittedly, Kentavious is converting 10% fewer of said looks in Orlando, but diagnosing the reasons for that discrepancy is simple.
I have not perused the pay-walled, all-in-one shot quality metrics, nor do I need to. Moreover, cherry-picking clips of contested Caldwell-Pope threes would serve no purpose in gaining further clarity. But it stands to reason that your shot quality, especially as a 3&D wing, is a function of your surroundings (particularly in the halfcourt). With a distinct lack of shooting threats up and down their rotation, The Magic's floor balance has been more cluttered than a hoarder's house.
The fundamental differences between the respective ecosystems in Denver and Orlando could not be any more glaring. In Colorado, you have the greatest singular offensive player in the NBA. Nikola Jokić skews the floor and creates defensive overlaps with a mere post touch and basic player movement. The defensive knock-on effects that his presence alone can impose is as good a bottom line as there is. Conversely, Orlando's attack orbits two dynamic point forwards, each with their own shooting shortcomings. One downhill-oriented and drive & kick heavy in Franz Wagner, the other a mid-post maven and bully-ball isolationist in Paolo Banchero. Both Franz and Paolo split on-ball duties and coexist simultaneously with a conventional big man in most lineup configurations. When one is operating, the other resorts to finding their place away from the ball, whatever form that may take. To make matters worse, when their obliques got the best of them, Jalen Suggs and Anthony Black took the mantle. Serviceable guards who are inarguably best suited as secondary and tertiary creators, respectively.
Comparatively speaking, the alchemy for Caldwell-Pope to garner consistently clean looks in Orlando simply does not exist. Narrower gaps, shorter rotations, as well as both structural and personnel drawbacks lead to a higher proportion of spot-ups under duress or rushed releases. Defenders are infinitely less committal two-plus passes away from the primary action, rendering scrambled rotations and fly-outs to Caldwell-Pope on the receiving end of a pass equally more disruptive. For a player who is frequently deployed as a corner stowaway, that fact becomes particularly amplified.
In short, Caldwell-Pope's shooting struggles are as much a function of Orlando's cramped halfcourt as it is an extended personal slump. Jamahl Mosley, believe it or not, is one of the more sophisticated and structurally sound offensive coaches in the NBA against a set defense. To this point, he has managed to prop up some of the most shooting deficient lineups in the league to a respectable level of baseline competence. But there comes a point where barely grazing 30% collectively becomes untenable, no matter what levers you pull.
Denver's Mismanagement
I will beat this drum until there is no drum left. The parsimony of Nuggets' ownership may well be their death knell. Was it an overpay? Yes. Was that a fair reason to let KCP walk? Absolutely not.
Championship windows close as fast as they emerge, and Jokić has entered his 30s. They have no avenues to obtain a wing resembling KCP's two-way quality or archetype. Their perimeter defense has slipped considerably and their spacing is abhorrent. I am not saying KCP is a fix-all or silver bullet. But as presently constructed, it is about rotational integrity above all else. Depth, optionality and dependability. It was indefensible then and it is indefensible now. At the end of the day, seven reliable bodies are better than six. But when your overseers prioritize luxury tax savings over maximizing your chances of winning, six will have to suffice.