Statistical Indicators: Andrew Nembhard's Impact in Indy
Andrew Nembhard has been instrumental in the Pacers' righting their early season wrongs, and the data bears it out across the board.
Andrew Nembhard is not your average analytics darling. It is no coincidence that since his long-awaited return to starter-level rotation minutes on December 6th, the Pacers are 19-7 with him in the lineup.
While it should be acknowledged that 3PT shooting luck inevitably plays a role, there is a vast statistical disparity in Nembhard's On/Off splits this season. All numbers cited below are per Cleaning The Glass (unless stated otherwise). Let’s run through some advanced numbers in the Nembhard minutes that jump off the page:
Team Defense: Indiana allows 9.6 fewer points per 100 possessions (ranks in the 98th percentile)
Shutting Off The Rim: The Pacers are allowing 2.8% fewer opponent field goal attempts at the rim (as a proportion of total FGs), as well as a 3.8% lower FG% on said attempts (both rank in the 85th percentile)
Protecting the rim was arguably Indiana's biggest pitfall during their early season struggles
Defending Without Fouling: Opponent Free Throw Rate (free throws made per 100 field goal attempts) drops by 2.7 (ranks in the 84th percentile)
Defending The Corner Three: Opponent 3PT% from either corner plummets by 6.3%. 3PT variance comes into play here, but such a drastic fall in efficiency is somewhat telling
Transition Defense: 3.8% fewer of opponent live rebounds lead to a transition play (ranks in the 86th percentile)
Andrew's offensive approach has also taken a turn for the better. His mid-range attempt rate (the proportion of his 2PT field goal attempts outside of 3 feet) has climbed from 44% to 52% year-on-year, despite a drop in efficiency from 49% to 43%. Interestingly, his free throw rate (the number of free throws attempts per field goal attempt) has almost tripled, skyrocketing from 10.7% to 29.3% per Basketball Reference. You would typically expect these trends to be negatively correlated i.e. the more mid-range jumpers you attempt, especially with the many being self-created, the harder it is to draw shooting fouls.
In short, by the numbers Nembhard has been one of the most positively impactful players leaguewide in respect of team defense. With Nembhard on the floor, the Pacers allow a markedly lower volume and efficiency on opponent rim and corner 3PT attempts, they foul less, and their transition defense off misses sees a sizeable uptick. It is all fine and well to spout advanced numbers as above, take it at face value and declare them as gospel. But as always, these numbers are merely indicative rather than exhaustive. It is imperative to take a 10,000 foot view, do our due diligence and contextualize the forces at play.
The salient questions that follow: Do such statistical indicators hold weight? Why such a pronounced discrepancy? How do these come about?
Let's bridge the gap between the quantitative and the qualitative aspects of Andrew Nembhard’s contributions within Indiana’s wider team system. This is more than mere happenstance.
Defense
Rim Defense (and Defending Without Fouling)
Nembhard is the Pacers’ foremost point of attack defender, and it follows that with added resistance on the perimeter, the onus on Myles Turner to plug holes and clean up mistakes on the backline is eased.
Andrew's tendency to stay in hot pursuit of his man, remaining in the play from the rearview and riding his hip, enables him to aid in forcing stops on the interior when a driver is already on the way up. The manner in which he impedes drivers (typically the opponent's primary creator) while funneling them towards the help defender provides Turner with valuable seconds to slide across and protect the basket in a timely manner.
It follows that the more steadfast the Pacers are while interjecting on straight-line drives, the less they are forced to scramble and recover from a disadvantageous position. Avoiding whistles is largely a function of timely rotations and favorable positioning in anticipation of dribble penetration. Nembhard’s presence on the perimeter empowers Indiana’s defense to maintain their positional and spatial integrity on a per-possession basis.
Restricting Corner Threes:
Chalk it up to 3PT shooting luck as much as you want, Nembhard's spatial awareness one to two passes away from the ball is borderline faultless. He is seemingly ubiquitous in this regard because A) he is proactive in how far he shades towards the ball and B) he never rests on his laurels.
The first three clips below demonstrate exactly that. Firstly, he switches with the low-man (Bennedict Mathurin) at a moment's notice when Norman Powell beats him off the dribble, directly switching into a contest on the corner kick to Kawhi Leonard. Secondly, he hustles to just below the nail to cut off Isaiah Collier’s take before picking up Keyonte George on the dump-off, retreating back to the corner and jump-switching onto Markkanen before smothering his jumper. A positional hat-trick. Thirdly, he commits all the way to the elbow to narrow Kawhi's driving lane to his left while maintaining the latitude to fan back out to Powell in the corner and closeout in unison with the pass.
Nembhard is an expert in what I like to call “defensive duality” - splitting your defensive attention between your man and the ball in a manner that allows you to protect against one threat, while still having the ability to recover against another. The sequences below outline how he masterfully sends partial help to his teammates while not overstepping or leaving himself vulnerable in respect of his individual assignment.
Transition Defense
The Pacers rank 25th in transition points allowed per possession his season. As such, the best panacea to avoid bleeding points on the break is to constrict transition opportunities before they begin. Solid transition defense starts with having a designated "safety" offensively when a shot goes up, which combats against leak-outs or early outlets, be it off a make or a miss. Often times, the safety is inevitably a guard stationed at the 45 or the top of the arc. The better these players pre-empt a live rebound counter-attack through backcourt positioning, the less fast break opportunities an opponent will be afforded.
In the examples below, Nembhard's propensities in this regard are clear as day. He routinely picks up and greets a ball handler around the 3PT arc and backpedals impeccably, often buying his teammates valuable time to hustle back. When his teammates pick up the ball, he prioritizes defending the interior above all else and playing the percentages. After all, the objective of transition defense is to stop the ball and guard the rim. It is no surprise that with Nembhard on the floor, who is routinely the first man back, 3.8% fewer of opponent live rebounds lead to a transition play.
Andrew has an on-court opponent transition frequency off live rebounds of 19.7%, which ranks in the 99th percentile among two-guards.
Additional Tidbit: Counteracting Manipulative Drivers
Another arrow in Andrew Nembhard’s quiver is the manner in which he defends against the likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Brunson, drivers that actively seek out contact as a means of invoking a whistle. One of the most common trends (which I prefer to categorize as an epidemic) manifesting across the NBA this season is the use of the off-arm when getting downhill. This is typically observed when a driver jump-stops in the lane and leans into the defender with their off-arm to ward them off and create ample separation. Otherwise, it has become commonplace for a ball handler to barrel into a defender shoulder-first to initiate contact and coax a foul call.
Since his return, I have noticed several instances where Nembhard gets out in front of this strategy by simply withdrawing himself at the point of the drive where a ball handler seeks out contact. He effectively deploys the trusty “pulling the chair” method, which was common during the 2000s as a way of negating post-ups by causing an offensive player to lose their balance. Nembhard either backs up aggressively or shifts his body to the side, causing the ball handler to be rendered off-kilter and lose their balance. Abating contact in this manner is a cunning means of counteracting contact-hungry drivers and serves as a credit to his guile on the defensive side of the ball.
Offense
Mid-Range Jumpers & Drawing Fouls
Andrew is taking more mid-range pullups than ever before while coaxing shooting fouls with regularity. This is simply a credit to the expansion of his game. Dominating the in-between game has always been his bread and butter, but he is weaponizing separation off the dribble at a career-high volume.
As paradoxical as Nembhard’s foul-drawing leap appears within the context of his shot profile (a career-low in rim attempts and career-high in mid-range jumpers), it is representative of a shift in M.O. A newfound patience, and poise, while operating inside the arc has made him a greater threat with the ball in his hands. Andrew is keeping his dribble alive more often, is methodical on his gathers, and is leveraging pump fakes while staying perfectly square to the basket. His confidence off the bounce is at an all-time high, and his grasp of how to toy with defenders has seen equally transformative improvements.
Setting The Table
Nembhard is asserting greater command of the offense, easing the playmaking load of Tyrese Haliburton in the process. His career-high 23.2% assist percentage ranks in the 94th percentile at the shooting guard position. His passing vocabulary has been on full display, and the array of dimes below is a solid encapsulation of how he is being deployed. Whether he finds his teammates with pitch-backs, hit-aheads, pocket passes to the middle, or splits defenders while turning the corner, everyone eats.