The Eye Test: Jabari Smith Jr. Finding an Equilibrium in H-Town

While Paolo and Chet flirt with stardom, the silence has been deafening on the Jabari Smith Jr. front. When you look beyond the numbers, his NBA legitimacy remains unscathed.

Jabari Smith Jr’s rookie and sophomore seasons were shrouded in a veil of disappointment, heavily exacerbated by the early success of his draft counterparts and a roster loaded with unproven talent. But as the old adage goes, comparison is the thief of joy. With tempered expectations and an objective assessment of Jabari’s production to this point, the undercurrent of pessimism is premature. The Rockets are sitting pretty for the first time since James Harden waved goodbye, and Smith Jr. poses to be an integral piece of a winning formula.

Pre-Draft Discourse

The 2022 NBA Draft was headlined by the triumvirate of Jabari Smith Jr., Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren. Each brought their own stylistic flair, as well as distinct concerns while transitioning to the next level.

When the draft order was set in stone, Houston’s destiny would hinge on the respective agendas of Orlando and Oklahoma City. The Magic had their pick of the litter - a physically imposing point forward, a two-way beanpole with unicorn potential, or a sharpshooting four with NBA length. The hypothetical big board was mired in speculation, courtesy of Jeff Weltman’s closed door policy and clandestine operation in the preceding weeks. The consensus waxed and waned on a daily basis, and the first overall pick effectively remained a mystery until the Magic were on the clock. Weltman and the Magic baited and switched from Smith Jr. to Banchero in real time, catching even the most attuned draft experts off guard in the process.

With Chet Holmgren longed for Oklahoma City, the Rockets were gift-wrapped Jabari at No. 3.

Draft Profile

The Chris Bosh comparisons were inescapable for Jabari - a slender build, a laser 3PT shooter at the college level, and a pliable defender. He was never lauded as an advantage creator off the bounce, but instead profiled as a multi-pronged forward who needed to be catered to, as opposed to catering for others. But the value of his size and stretch ability alone was impossible to ignore.

The reality remains that Jabari's ultimate fate hinges almost exclusively on his 3PT accuracy going forward. A knock-down shooter off the catch at Auburn, the long ball was by far his most marketable skill. It was originally considered a foregone conclusion that his jumper could and should translate, while his on-ball juice and lack of self-administered offense were flagged as potential pitfalls.

The Bust Brigade

Naturally, Jabari’s slow start spurred murmurings of unmet expectations and whispers of the “bust” label well before his 21st birthday. The absence of a singular transformative offensive skill or an individual star trajectory from the outset soured the public perception of his NBA future, but such trepidations are overblown and devoid of important context.

History tells us that a 100% hit rate at the top of the draft is hard to come by. All-Star status is a high-bar, and those slots are painfully scarce. Recent draft classes have had their fair share of flame-outs at the top of the lottery - James Wiseman, Marvin Bagley III, Markelle Fultz and Jahlil Okafor to name a few. The Otto Porter Jr. comparison, the third pick in the 2013 draft, holds weight for Jabari’s current course. But Smith Jr. more closely resembles the Andrew Wiggins blueprint, minus the early career scoring usage, as he is equipped with the measurables to traverse the positional spectrum defensively as well as a broad-based offensive skillset to pitch in whenever his number is called.

Another critical factor to account for is: what was the opportunity cost at pick No. 3? Another high-level role player in Keegan Murray who is almost three years older? A duplicative scoring guard in Jaden Ivey? Jabari fell into the Rockets lap, and by every estimation that was the best-case scenario given their direction at that juncture. They stacked the deck by filling a void at forward and as such have little to regret.

Role Elasticity

As the film below will illustrate, Jabari Smith Jr.’s ultimate calling card is his “role elasticity”. A knack for functioning in a multitude of ways, both situationally and generally. Full-fledged dependability across the board, and on both sides of the ball, is a value-add no matter how you slice it.

While a cynic may describe his role as amorphous, an optimist (such as yours truly) would prefer to characterize it as resourceful and well-rounded. It turns out that functionality, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. I have fulfilled the evidentiary film quota, and hopefully the sample size below can convert even the most deep-rooted cynicism into a semblance of optimism. Jabari can fill gaps and plug holes like few at his position, but as usual, I will let the tape tell the tale. The game tape below is from the 2023-24 season, but suffice to say Jabari has carried the same two-way momentum into 2024-25.

The Eye Test

Offense

Smith Jr. has embraced a strictly complementary role, optimized as a play finisher within the flow of the offense who can weaponize the screen and roll or make intuitive passing reads. He is an instinctual cutter, a serial transition threat, a toolsy post operator who can capitalize on mismatches, an avid, and has a deceptively smooth floor game that he is seldom required to tap into. While he is never going to create advantages off the bounce, that should not be an overarching demerit in the grand scheme of his game. Let’s break it down.

Straight-Line Drives

Jabari is a willing and dangerous straight-line driver with a few dribbles versus single coverage, especially against delayed closeouts or when attacking off the rip to the middle of the floor.

Three-Point Shooting

Smith Jr. has shot 37.8% and 38.1% on catch and shoot threes last season and this season to date (respectively). That conversion rate is far from alarming, but leaves much to be desired. Shooting aside, he has little to no holes in his game and there are positive signs at every turn.

Above The Break

Jabari has shot 32.8% on above the break threes for his career thus far. That is a figure which will need to climb in order to separate himself, especially considering the fact that floor spacing from every segment was his unique selling point coming out of Auburn.

From The Corners

Smith Jr’s corner three-point shot gives him latitude away the ball in halfcourt sets as a credible supplementary spacer. However, his 46.4% conversion rate from the corners in 2023-24 has plummeted to 29.7% on increased volume so far this season. Time will tell which number is more representative of his shooting aptitude from either sideline.

Floater Range

As a 47.9% shooter from floater range last season, Jabari can rinse both smaller and slower matchups on dribble gathers, turnaround jumpers and sweeping runners. However, as with his corner three-point shooting, his floater range efficiency has fallen to 37.8% this season. It remains to be seen whether last year’s accuracy was an aberration.

Transition Scoring

Smith Jr. is no stranger to coasting the floor to get behind the defense, whether he is running the split-line route or a wide channel on either wing. His explosiveness as a one-foot leaper bodes well when it comes to catching and finishing with a head of steam and limited runway.

Freelance Cutting & Motion Offense Reads

Jabari routinely springs free in the halfcourt by roving ball-side into gaps off dribble penetration and mid-post touches from Alperen Şengün. His propensity to cut down the slot and along the baseline punishes defenders for ball watching, overcommitting or losing track of him in their periphery.

Supplemental Playmaking: Transition

Jabari has an under-the-radar floor game on the break. He leverages hit-ahead passes for early outlets and deploys sprint dribbles to cover ground in a manner that is hard to come by for a player with his length.

Supplemental Playmaking: Drawing Two

Smith Jr.’s acuity when being tracked by two defenders deserves a lot of credit. He is keenly aware of pass openings when faced with a second body and exhibits timely placement to find the open man, be it inside or out, more often than not.

Supplemental Playmaking: Entry Passing & Dump-offs

Jabari’s high-low synergy with Şengün is encouraging. He is a strikingly evaluative entry passer both over the top as well as with nifty bounce passes. This type of four-five connection with a spaced floor affords the Rockets with halfcourt optionality outside of standard-issue, guard-initiated sets.

Supplemental Playmaking: Handoffs & Making the Extra Pass

Smith Jr. is a key link in the Rockets’ offensive chain - facilitating flow by making the extra pass on ball reversals or initiating a two-man game off the cuff in an empty-side.

Defense

Outside of intermittent lapses on overzealous pick coverages or an imperfect defensive stance, Jabari has everything going for him defensively as a hybrid big. He is stout on the perimeter for a player with his measurables, is more attuned on help-side than your average 21-year old, and his habits when contesting at the rim are picture perfect.

Defensive Wherewithal: Scram Switching & Pre-Switching

Jabari’s switch instincts are razor sharp. His situational recognition on the scram and pre-switches below is impeccable.

For those unaware, a scram switch involves shading over from the weakside corner to switch on the strong-side when there is a mismatch inside.

On the first clip, Jabari starts out with Beauchamp who is fading to the short corner, but recognizes that Aaron Holiday is left on an island with Giannis ball-side. He relocates towards the strong-side block to switch onto Giannis, while Holiday replaces his man to cover Beauchamp in the opposite corner.

As with the second clip, Smith Jr. helps off Prince in the corner to outright switch onto the like-sized Rui Hachimura, allowing Holiday to escape the interior mismatch.

In the third clip, Jabari recognizes the cross-match and moves from left to right in order to pre-switch onto Ivica Zubac before he corrals the entry pass, relieving Jalen Green of a hefty size disadvantage in the process.

An All-In-One Sequence

This sequence encompasses Jabari’s wide-ranging defensive package. The degree of execution on display is unambiguously elite. He sinks to the opposite block to cover two, man the restricted area and wall off the pass to Mark Williams. He then proceeds to close back out to P.J. Washington on the kick-out, stay low, impede the drive and contest vertically.

Textbook Vertical Contests

Jabari’s verticality on a range of contests is first-rate, maintaining his vertical plane to a T whether grounded or airborne. Textbook verticality is his default M.O., the efficacy of which cannot be overstated. Defending with your arms straight up is arguably the single most important defensive principle when abating shot attempts at the backend of a drive or pressuring shot-hungry big men down low. It disincentivizes whistles, regardless of whether you are in the air or your feet are planted to the floor. Jabari applies the same trait while matching up with guards or bigs alike.

While the principle of “verticality” is widely thought to apply exclusively to situations where a player leaves their feet in contesting a shot attempt, maintaining your vertical cylinder when grounded is critical to defending without fouling - especially when defending down low. The art of legal defense predominantly rests on A) what a referee observes from their vantage point or sight line and B) what you can get away with. In any instance of a foul call, I always like to ask myself: did the defender give the official a reason to blow the whistle? I.e. did they blatantly reach in? Did they lower their arms to an angle less than a 90°? Were they late to the spot? By maintaining your vertical cylinder, you effectively eliminate several factors that typically coax an official into making a call. Jabari stays straight up and down at almost every turn, and that is an underrated habit that all defenders should aim to implement.

Perimeter Defense & Sliding Laterally

In an age where switchability is paramount, Smith Jr.’s stoicism when moving laterally and backtracking on the perimeter at 6’11” is invaluable. His lithe build enables him to keep shifty guards in front, and his reach serves him well when lunging forward on the backfoot to contest.

Switching & Screen Navigation

Smith Jr. is a pliable pick defender and operates hitch-free as a timely switcher. He has the foresight and fluidity of movement to pre-switch off the ball, jump-switch top-side when he begins the play on the screener, or glide over the top of screens to stay in lockstep with ball handlers.

Off-Ball & Help-Side Awareness

Much like his switch savviness, rotational excellence on the weak-side is seemingly innate for Jabari both as a rim deterrent and a second lineman. Despite the tough finish from Karl-Anthony Towns, the first clip below is a prime example. Regardless of how far astray he finds himself away from the ball, his threat assessment is downright elite. At 0:30, he recognizes Şengün overplaying towards the strong-side block to counteract LeBron’s size advantage and accordingly sags all the way to the split-line in anticipation of Anthony Davis cutting downhill into a open lane. Such an interjection provides a crucial safety net when Houston’s set defense is overloaded towards one side of the floor.

Defensive Miscues: Getting Caught Upright on Closeouts

I like to take the good with the bad, as rose-tinted glasses typically lead to blind faith. While Jabari can certainly get in opponents’ jerseys on the perimeter, there are plenty of kinks to be ironed out when he is in a stance one-on-one or hustling for a late closeout. Jabari is occasionally caught upright and stuck in quicksand on the outside, leading to inexcusably detrimental blow-bys. These instances largely stem from either half-committal closeouts or Smith Jr. squaring up and leaving himself vulnerable to being attacked to the left or the right with a single dribble move or a quick first step. While unavoidable at times by virtue of either a disparity in quickness or a simple broken play within the wider team context, a more deliberate approach in which way he wants to guide and send his man on dribble penetration should mitigate these mistakes.

Defensive Miscues: Sporadic Inattentiveness

Nobody is perfect, the least of which a burgeoning prospect still adjusting to the rigors of modern NBA offense. Jabari’s attention to detail can wane from time to time on the glass, in transition, and during more advanced halfcourt sets. The silver lining? Several of these defensive breakdowns (barring the third clip in Boston) came about from a lack of execution rather than a lack of intent i.e. a miscommunication with his teammates on a multi-screen action or a missed boxout when the shot goes up. These breakdowns notwithstanding, Jabari rarely looks lost, and his misreads are eminently fixable for the most part. Muting such lapses is Smith Jr.’s next step to becoming a truly bulletproof defensive force.

The Bottom Line

I may be on an island bereft of human contact when I express genuine optimism for Jabari Smith Jr's NBA future, but quite frankly the evidence is overwhelming. The budding All-Star ship has sailed, but the road map to becoming a high-level starter in a winning context is very much in play.

Smith Jr. is a defensive stalwart and multi-purpose offensive operator whose role shapeshifts depending on what the circumstances demand. His shooting struggles out the gate do not, and should not, derail the strides he has made in every facet of the game. Whether you do as I do and keep the faith, or your skepticism remains steadfast, Jabari’s next chapter inevitably brings more questions than answers with extension season on the horizon.